The hottest Middle East crude oil supply concerns

2022-10-14
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Middle East crude oil supply concerns escalate New York crude oil futures price remains at the highest level in nine months

Middle East crude oil supply concerns escalate New York crude oil futures price remains at the highest level in nine months

June 18, 2013

[China paint information] although the basic economic data for may just released by the United States is lower than expected, due to market concerns that the deterioration of the situation in Syria may affect the supply of crude oil in the Middle East, after the New York crude oil price hit a new high last week, Crude oil prices in New York continued to rise this week

at present, the futures price of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange remains at the highest level since September last year. New York crude oil has stood at a high of $98/barrel, and Brent crude oil is also above $106/barrel. Moreover, managed funds are also increasing their net long holdings of crude oil futures and options

Ben Rhodes, deputy assistant to the president for national security affairs, said last week that the United States believed that Syrian government forces had used chemical weapons against opposition forces and crossed the red line. President Obama decided to provide direct military support to the Syrian opposition for the first time

zhuochuang information analysis believes that Syria is not the main oil producing area in the Middle East, but there are important oil producing countries in the surrounding areas. If the war spreads, it will affect the crude oil supply in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, and the global oil market will be in short supply, so the market is quite sensitive to the situation in the Middle East

"however, the market overreacted to the escalation of the Syrian conflict. Although the oil supply in the Middle East is crucial, the Syrian conflict does not necessarily affect the key oil producing countries in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia still has more than 2 million barrels of spare daily production capacity, and the crude oil production of the United States is also growing, so the world oil supply will not be seriously affected." Zhuochuang has made some noteworthy discoveries, Chen Qing, an information analyst, said

the volatility of crude oil and other commodities in recent trading days has also aroused great interest in managed funds. Trading data show that there are obvious signs of long positions. Previously, the net long position in crude oil has increased significantly. According to the data of the U.S. Commodity Futures Commission (CFTC), in the week ended June 11, large speculators held 269831 net long positions in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, an increase of 13997 hands over the previous week, including 10031 long positions and 3966 short positions; The net long position of the management fund in crude oil futures and options held by the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by 9.5%, and the net long position in crude oil futures and options held by the Intercontinental Exchange European market increased by 37.95%

however, from the perspective of fundamental supply and demand, the upward momentum of crude oil is not strong, and it is expected to return to fundamentals again after being stimulated by the tense situation in Syria. At the same time, due to the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the crude oil market is still relatively cautious, and any positive or negative news will affect the international crude oil market in the short term

in addition, since the global economic recovery is still less than expected, at the beginning of this month, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), the International Energy Agency and the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered their crude oil demand expectations this year in order to ensure its normal work

last week, the US energy information administration reduced the growth rate of the global average daily demand for crude oil in 2013 by 20000 barrels. The EIA predicts that the global average daily demand for crude oil this year will only increase by 870000 compared with last year, and the tepex embedded layer thickness is 0.5 mm. At the same time, the growth rate of the average daily demand for crude oil in 2014 is also expected to be revised down by 20000 barrels to 1.19 million barrels

the monthly report on the oil market released by OPEC also predicts that the global daily oil demand in 2013 is expected to be 89.65 million barrels, an increase of 780000 barrels over the average daily demand in 2012, and the increase in demand is reduced by 10000 barrels compared with the forecast of last month; It is estimated that the average daily demand for OPEC crude oil in the world oil market in 2013 is 29.8 million barrels, a decrease of 400000 barrels from the average daily demand in 2012

the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts in its latest monthly report on the oil market that the global average daily oil demand will increase by 785000 barrels in 2013, down 10000 barrels from the previous forecast. Since the beginning of this year, IEA has lowered its global crude oil demand forecast for four consecutive times

iea pointed out in its report that due to the weak macro-economic operation in the world, especially the possibility of the European economy falling into recession again and the slowdown of China's economic growth, the growth of global oil demand this year slowed down and was lower than the original expectation, reducing the growth rate of China's oil demand to 3.8%

although the IEA report also shows that the oil demand of non OECD countries exceeded that of OECD countries for the first time in April this year, the latest research of Barclays believes that "this important long-term trend of the oil market is to prevent the positive impact of the steel boom in the experimental process from being weakened by a group of weak Chinese market data, including the decline of trade, the slowdown of industrial production and the slowdown of real estate investment."

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