The hottest Middle East war situation pushed up cr

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The Middle East war situation pushed up crude oil and rebounded sharply

the Middle East war situation pushed up crude oil and rebounded sharply

November 20, 2012

[China paint information] the discussion between the two parties in the U.S. Congress on the "fiscal cliff" of the United States finally made positive progress. On the 16th, the leaders of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party expressed confidence to avoid the occurrence of the "fiscal cliff", which boosted the small rebound of the three major stock indexes of the U.S. stock market that day

On the 16th, US President Barack Obama held talks with congressional leaders on the "fiscal cliff". The White House said in a statement issued on the same day that the talks were "constructive". The leaders at the meeting vowed to find common ground on tax increases and spending cuts, so that the United States could avoid a "fiscal cliff"

after experiencing the US presidential election drama, preheating the "fiscal cliff" and the Greek debt crisis and other negative factors, the crude oil market once again found the long-awaited excitement. Last week, tensions between Israel and Palestine suddenly escalated, and both sides had armed conflicts near the Gaza Strip. Under the circumstances of mutual injury, the Israeli Ministry of defense urgently recruited 30000 reserve soldiers to press the Gaza Strip, As an ally of Palestine, Egypt actively supports Hamas "At present, the technical system, platform architecture, product form and service mode we are familiar with may take on a new look in the near future. The resistance organization seems to have the intention to stop the Israeli aggression. The military conflict is becoming more and more intense, and the coverage is also expanding. Although Egypt is not a major oil producer in the Middle East, it controls two important oil pipelines - the Suez Canal and the sumed pipeline. According to the estimation of the American Energy Information Association, these two This oil pipeline carries about 3.8 million barrels per day of crude oil between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean

although the data released by the Federal Reserve on the same day showed that affected by Hurricane "Sandy", US industrial production fell 0.4% month on month in October. However, the positive comments of Reid and other congressional leaders still boosted the U.S. stock market. At the close of the day, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose by 0.4% to 0.6%

from the weekly perspective, the US Dow Jones index and Nasdaq index both fell by 1.8%, and the S & P 500 index also fell by 1.5%

European stock markets were also dragged down by the debt problem. On the 16th, the pan European blue chip index closed 1% lower at 1067.45 points, the lowest close since August 2. The index fell 2.7% last week, and uncertainty about Greece's next fiscal measures weighed on market confidence

as the recent weak U.S. economic data has led to increased expectations of quantitative easing in the market, gold assets that hedge inflation have been sought after by investors again. On the 16th, the December gold futures price, the most actively traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures market, closed at $1714.7 per ounce, up 0.05% from the previous trading day

however, on a weekly basis, gold prices in New York fell 1%. Overseas media analysts believe that there are signs of slowing global economic growth, and investors are worried about the U.S. economic recession, which has affected the attractiveness of gold as a hedge against inflation

driven by tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices soared on the 16th. On the same day, the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalated again. Investors are worried that the continued escalation of the Palestinian Israeli conflict will endanger the oil supply in the Middle East, and geopolitical pressure will push up oil prices. In addition, on the same day, a fire broke out in an offshore oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, causing investors to worry about supply, which also helped raise oil prices

according to the data released by the American Petroleum Association on the 16th, the oil delivery volume, which measures the domestic oil demand of the United States, fell by 2.3% in October compared with the same period last year. As of the close of the day, the futures price of light crude oil stripping force tester for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at US $86.67 per barrel, up 1.43%

hovering below $90 for 4 weeks

as a "leader" variety in the commodity market, crude oil has recently been surrounded by many advantages that give ABC column better gloss, stronger toughness and high weather resistance, but the New York crude oil futures price has hovered around $85 a barrel for 4 weeks

last Friday (November 16), the New York crude oil futures contract rose about 1.43% due to market concerns that the conflict between Israel and Hamas would escalate. In the past week (November 12-16), the trend of crude oil futures price has been generally stable, with a cumulative increase of 0.7% in the week

in fact, there were many negative factors in the crude oil market last week. For example, the EIA, IEA and OPEC all lowered their expectations of global demand growth in 2012 by a large margin. At the same time, they predicted that the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2013 was only the same as that in 2012

according to the Monita analysis report, the continued slowdown in the macro environment will weaken global industrial activity and maintain the downturn in crude oil consumption. When the Brent oil price remains above $110 per barrel, it is difficult for the global crude oil demand to grow, because the oil price has restrained the global crude oil demand, and the oil price limit borne by non OECD countries is only $130 per barrel

in addition, the speculation of "energy independence" triggered by the "energy revolution" in the United States is in the ascendant. Many crude oil institutions have released reports predicting that the output of shale oil and gas in the United States will rise rapidly, and in 2020, the crude oil output will exceed Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest crude oil producer. In a 300 page world oil outlook report released last week, OPEC predicted that US shale gas production would increase from 15million cubic feet/day in 2012 to 25billion cubic feet/day in two years

in fact, this news needs to be verified for the market

"near worries" may cause oil prices to rise

just as the market expectation before the launch of qe3 caused a considerable rise in crude oil futures prices, the "fiscal cliff" in the United States during the year is also likely to make oil prices rise again

Lu Hui, senior researcher of Jintai futures research and development department, said in the analysis report that in the face of the combined impact of economic expectations, policy expectations and risk expectations, the current focus on commodity trends, especially the trend of industrial products, is still economic (including risk events) and policy

"the current pressure on oil prices mainly comes from the European debt dilemma and the demand concerns caused by the 'fiscal cliff', but from the perspective of geographical support, easing policies and the recent operation of the Chinese and American economies, although oil prices are under pressure, there is not much room below." Lu Hui said

According to the latest EIA data, as of November 9, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels in the week, and U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 400000 barrels in the week; Distillate oil (including diesel and heating oil) stocks decreased by 2.5 million barrels. Inventory data are more optimistic than analysts expected

Lu Jie, an analyst at Xinhu futures, said that according to the seasonal analysis of U.S. crude oil inventory, it is expected that the import volume of U.S. crude oil will decrease after winter, and the inventory is likely to decrease at that time. However, considering the high output of U.S. crude oil, it is expected that the inventory reduction will be small and will still be higher than the average level of the previous five years

according to the report data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last Friday (November 16), as of the week of November 13, the net long position in crude oil held by speculators increased by 291 to 34410, indicating that speculators continue to be bullish on crude oil

in addition, the latest data released by the U.S. Department of labor on November 15 showed that the broken sample was in good contact with the contact block. As of November 10, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 439000, far higher than the expected 375000, an increase of 78000. The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week hit the highest level since April 30, 2011, with the largest increase since September 10, 2005

some analysts believe that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has increased sharply due to the impact of super storm Sandy. Because qe3 is linked to unemployment data, the market is further observing the possibility of its expansion, which will promote the oil price to rise again

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